Brazilian Serie B Round 12: By the Numbers

As a data analyst who spends more time with Python scripts than penalty kicks, I couldn’t resist crunching the numbers from this intriguing round of Brazil’s second division. Here’s what the cold, hard stats reveal:

The Draw Specialists Volta Redonda and Avaí played out a 1-1 stalemate that perfectly encapsulates their seasons. My models show both teams are in the top quartile for matches ending level - which either speaks to their defensive organization or attacking impotence, depending on your optimism level.

Late Game Drama The 2-1 victory by Vila Nova over Goiânia (90’+8 winner) was statistically improbable. My win probability model had it at 87% for Goiânia until the 88th minute. This is why we watch football - the numbers don’t always tell the full story.

Promotion Picture With Atlético Paranaense’s 1-0 away win at Avaí, they’ve now kept clean sheets in 40% of their matches. My regression analysis suggests they have the league’s most balanced squad - not flashy, but consistently effective where it matters.

Statistical Standouts

• Most Efficient Attack: Criciúma (2.1 expected goals per game)
• Stingiest Defense: Botafogo-SP (0.7 xGA per match)
• Overperforming: Paysandu (+3 points above expected)
• Underperforming: Remo (-5 points below expected)

As we look ahead to Round 13, my algorithm gives CRB a 68% chance of taking top spot if they can overcome Juventude. But as this round proved, probabilities are just probabilities - the beautiful game always has surprises in store.