The Numbers Behind Brazil’s Second Tier

Having crunched the data from all 22 matches in this marathon round (seriously, who schedules games at midnight on a Tuesday?), a few patterns emerge. The league average of 1.92 goals per game hides some fascinating outliers - like Atlético Goianiense’s 2-0 win featuring two goals from set pieces within 18 minutes.

Matchday Fireworks

The real entertainment came from the draws:

• Volta Redonda 1-1 Avaí: A 94th minute equalizer that ruined my predictive model (again)
• Goiás 1-2 Minas Gerais: Proof that even in Brazil’s second division, away wins can happen (38% occurrence rate this season)

Under-the-Radar Performer

Criciúma’s left-back made 12 progressive carries in their match - highest in the round. Not bad for a team fighting relegation.

What The Data Says About Promotion Races

Looking at expected points:

1. Coritiba (23.7 xPts)
2. América-MG (21.9)
3. Botafogo-SP (20.4)

The gap between 4th and 8th? Just 1.3 expected points. This playoff race will be tighter than a defender marking Pelé in ‘70.