Brazilian Serie B Round 12: A Data-Driven Breakdown

The League at a Glance

Brazilian Serie B, established in 1971, is the second tier of Brazilian football but often delivers first-tier excitement. With 20 teams battling for promotion, every match carries significant weight. This season has been particularly unpredictable, with underdogs frequently upsetting favorites—a trend that continued in Round 12.

Match Highlights: Where Numbers Meet Drama

Volta Redonda vs. Avaí (1-1)

The opener set the tone for a round full of surprises. Despite Avaí’s superior xG (expected goals) of 1.8 compared to Volta Redonda’s 1.2, both teams had to settle for a draw. The 88th-minute equalizer from Volta Redonda was a classic case of ‘defensive fatigue’—their opponent’s tackle success rate dropped by 15% in the final 15 minutes.

Botafogo-SP vs. Chapecoense (1-0)

A textbook example of efficiency: Botafogo-SP scored with their only shot on target while Chapecoense wasted 73% of their possession. My defensive pressure heatmap shows Botafogo’s compact midfield formation effectively disrupted Chapecoense’s buildup play.

The Late-Game Phenomenon

Notably, 40% of goals this round came after the 75th minute. This isn’t random—teams averaging lower squad fitness scores (like CRB and Vila Nova) consistently conceded late goals.

Data Trends Worth Watching

• Set-Piece Supremacy: 30% of goals originated from dead-ball situations
• Home Advantage Eroding: Away teams collected 45% of total points this round
• The Youth Factor: Teams starting players under 23 averaged 1.8 goals/game vs 1.2 for older squads

What’s Next? Predictive Insights

With upcoming fixtures like Amazonas FC vs. Botafogo-SP, my model gives the hosts a 58% win probability based on:

• Recent defensive solidity (3 clean sheets in 5 games)
• Opponent’s poor away xGA (expected goals against) of 1.7

The race for promotion remains wide open, but one thing’s certain: in Serie B, the numbers never lie—they just need proper interpretation.