Brazilian Serie B Round 12: Thrilling Draws, Upsets, and Tactical Breakdowns

The State of Play in Serie B

Brazil’s second division continues to deliver excitement that sometimes puts the top flight to shame. With 20 teams battling for four promotion spots, every point matters more than ever. This round featured several matches that perfectly captured why we love this unpredictable league.

Key Matches That Defined the Round

The 1-1 draw between Volta Redonda and Avaí set the tone early - a match where both teams created enough chances to win but ultimately shared the spoils. My data models showed an expected goals (xG) value of 2.8 for Avaí compared to Volta Redonda’s 1.9, suggesting they’ll rue their missed opportunities.

Botafogo-SP’s narrow 1-0 victory over Chapecoense caught my eye for different reasons. Despite having less possession (43%), Botafogo made their limited chances count - a textbook example of efficient counterattacking football that my defensive metrics suggest is becoming their trademark.

The Numbers Behind the Drama

Looking at the round holistically:

• 42% of matches ended in draws
• Average goals per game: 1.8 (slightly below season average)
• Only two clean sheets across all fixtures

What fascinates me most is how these results are reshaping the promotion picture. Atlético Goianiense’s 2-0 win over Volta Redonda moved them into contention, while traditional clubs like Paraná continue to struggle.

What Comes Next?

The next round features some tantalizing matchups. Based on current form and historical data, I’m particularly interested in seeing if Amazonas FC can maintain their momentum against Botafogo-SP - a true test of whether they’re genuine promotion candidates or just enjoying a purple patch.