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As a quant analyst who tracks every pass and pulse in Brazilian football, I dissected the 1-1 draw between Volta Redonda and Avaí in Serie B’s Round 12. Using real-time metrics, Bayesian modeling, and play-by-play data, I reveal why this match defied expectations—and what it means for future underdog performances. Spoiler: The stats don’t lie, but they’re not telling the whole story.

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