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No hype, no guesses—just probabilities that win over gut feelings at midnight when the crowd's wrong too often.","view_total",1256,{"_665":758,"_674":763,"_683":504,"_684":769,"_484":770,"_277":771,"_688":772,"_325":-5,"_298":773,"_357":-5,"_13":-5,"_691":774,"_693":-5,"_694":775,"_696":776,"_673":777,"_7":722,"_723":800,"_725":801,"_755":805},[759],{"_350":760,"_277":-5,"_357":358,"_310":299},{"_669":299,"_308":761,"_306":762,"_672":299,"_673":-5,"_7":299,"_310":299},"mnmfm3b67opz.png","6qyfon/dkdt",[764],{"_677":765,"_277":768,"_357":358},{"_484":515,"_277":679,"_346":766,"_298":299,"_357":504,"_7":514},[767],{"_277":-5,"_7":514},69188,1825,"/why-did-messis-xg-fail-last-night-the-statistic-that-broke-the-book-2025-11-20",69565,1762,"As a data-driven analyst raised in New York by mathematicians, I’ve watched the numbers lie. Argentina’s €757M squad looks dominant—but their star’s xG underperformed while others thrived. This isn’t about passion. It’s about regression trees, confidence intervals, and cold truth. The models didn’t fail; our assumptions did. Let me show you why.","2025-11-20T10:55:06.020805+08:00",68,1596,[778,787,791],{"_277":-5,"_357":358,"_639":779},{"_484":780,"_277":781,"_346":782,"_298":299,"_357":504,"_7":786},"/football-analytics",6573,[783],{"_277":784,"_298":785,"_7":786},54955,"Dive into advanced football analytics with ESPNMart. Get real-time data, predictive insights, and expert analysis to enhance your understanding of the game. Perfect for fans, analysts, and betting enthusiasts.","football analytics",{"_277":-5,"_357":358,"_639":788},{"_484":657,"_277":658,"_346":789,"_298":299,"_357":504,"_7":661},[790],{"_277":712,"_298":660,"_7":661},{"_277":-5,"_357":358,"_639":792},{"_484":793,"_277":794,"_346":795,"_298":299,"_357":504,"_7":799},"/squad-valuation",61448,[796],{"_277":797,"_298":798,"_7":799},977792,"Get real-time squad valuation insights powered by advanced analytics to make smarter betting and roster decisions. Track player value shifts before game day and stay ahead of the competition.","squad valuation","2025-11-20T10:58:06.021061+08:00",{"_484":727,"_277":728,"_729":802},{"_731":732,"_350":803,"_749":750,"_688":751,"_752":753,"_298":754},{"_734":735,"_669":299,"_736":504,"_737":738,"_739":740,"_277":741,"_308":742,"_306":743,"_744":745,"_672":746,"_673":804,"_7":299,"_310":299,"_748":740},[],1790,{"_665":807,"_674":812,"_683":504,"_684":818,"_484":819,"_277":820,"_688":821,"_325":-5,"_298":822,"_357":-5,"_13":-5,"_691":823,"_693":-5,"_694":278,"_696":824,"_673":825,"_7":722,"_723":843,"_725":844,"_755":848},[808],{"_350":809,"_277":-5,"_357":358,"_310":299},{"_669":299,"_308":810,"_306":811,"_672":299,"_673":-5,"_7":299,"_310":299},"mm0forvrxu9e.png","6qx8cv/em8s",[813],{"_677":814,"_277":817,"_357":358},{"_484":515,"_277":679,"_346":815,"_298":299,"_357":504,"_7":514},[816],{"_277":-5,"_7":514},52611,682,"/why-did-messis-xg-fail-last-night-the-statistic-that-broke-the-book",52988,1080,"As a data-driven analyst raised in New York among mathematicians, I watched Messi’s expected goals collapse under pressure—not due to fatigue, but because the model missed a causal chain. This isn’t about emotion; it’s about calibration. The numbers don’t lie. They reveal why we were wrong: over-reliance on intuition, underestimation of defensive structure, and the quiet precision of European analytics meeting American hustle. Here, the truth isn’t flashy—it’s in the residuals.","2025-10-25T16:21:58.01749+08:00",881,[826,830,834],{"_277":-5,"_357":358,"_639":827},{"_484":701,"_277":702,"_346":828,"_298":299,"_357":504,"_7":707},[829],{"_277":705,"_298":706,"_7":707},{"_277":-5,"_357":358,"_639":831},{"_484":657,"_277":658,"_346":832,"_298":299,"_357":504,"_7":661},[833],{"_277":712,"_298":660,"_7":661},{"_277":-5,"_357":358,"_639":835},{"_484":836,"_277":837,"_346":838,"_298":299,"_357":504,"_7":842},"/expected-goals-model",45163,[839],{"_277":840,"_298":841,"_7":842},709222,"Predict match outcomes with precision using our science-backed Expected Goals model. Get actionable insights for football and beyond—turn data into smarter decisions, right when it matters.","expected goals model","2025-10-25T16:43:58.017754+08:00",{"_484":727,"_277":728,"_729":845},{"_731":732,"_350":846,"_749":750,"_688":751,"_752":753,"_298":754},{"_734":735,"_669":299,"_736":504,"_737":738,"_739":740,"_277":741,"_308":742,"_306":743,"_744":745,"_672":746,"_673":847,"_7":299,"_310":299,"_748":740},[],890,"message","page_size",{"_324":852,"_323":853,"_322":854},"Explore why Lionel Messi’s predictive models sometimes fail—even legends aren’t immune to statistical variance. At ESPNMart, we decode the hidden patterns behind missed goals using real-time data analytics. Our science-backed insights help fans, analysts, and bettors understand the true drivers of performance. Join a community where data meets passion—and every prediction counts.","messi xg failure;football prediction errors;sports analytics failure;messi goal prediction;data-driven sports insights;predictive modeling failure","Messi XG Failure: Data-Driven Insights on Predictive Misses","total","data",{"_328":651,"_858":859,"_860":861},"action","DsTagContentList","query",{"_654":358,"_850":409},{"_322":854,"_323":853,"_324":852},"actionData","errors"]