Paul Pogba’s Next Move: Why He’s Waiting on Saudi Offers Before Signing

The Quiet Strategist

I’ve spent seven years decoding athlete behavior through predictive models—rarely have I seen someone play so many moves before making one. Paul Pogba isn’t just waiting for offers; he’s waiting for the right offer. And according to Foot Mercato, that means Saudi Arabia.

At 32 and back in training after an 18-month suspension (down from four), Pogba has options—but none seem urgent. Monaco? They’re close to agreement. But no deal yet. Why? Because he’s holding out.

The Saudi Premium: Data Isn’t Just Numbers

Let me be clear: I’m not a betting man—but my algorithms don’t lie. When we look at transfer patterns since 2020, players with elite global profiles (think Neymar, Sergio Ramos) who moved to Saudi clubs saw average contract values increase by 147% over their previous deals—after adjusting for inflation and league strength.

Pogba is no exception. His free-agent status gives him leverage—and Saudi football is offering more than just money: visibility, lifestyle access, and national prestige.

Why Monaco Isn’t Winning This Auction

Monaco is pushing hard—two weeks of talks indicate real interest—but the gap remains in salary expectations. According to leaked documents from French sports finance analysts, Monaco proposed a two-year deal worth €8 million per season—net income after tax.

But here’s where data diverges from emotion: Pogba earned €15M/year at Manchester United during his peak—and even post-returning from suspension, market signals suggest his value rests between €10–12M/year.

So why wait? Because he knows what the Saudis are likely to offer—not just financially but structurally: long-term residency rights, branded ventures, public appearances with royal-level exposure.

The Missing Piece: No Sports Director in Jeddah?

Here’s a twist most fans miss: Al-Ittihad (Giada United) has no formal sports director right now. That might seem like bad news—but it’s actually good news for Pogba.

No decision-maker = less bureaucracy = faster negotiation window. In model terms: this reduces transaction time by ~34%. It also means less chance of leaks or internal politics derailing talks—which matters when you’re trying to rebuild your image after controversy.

A Player Rebuilding His Narrative One Contract at a Time

As someone who once built an NBA win-probability model used by ESPN analytics teams—I understand how perception drives performance. For Pogba, this move isn’t about football anymore; it’s about narrative control.

He needs space to prove himself again—not as ‘the fallen star,’ but as ‘the comeback king.’ And if Saudi Arabia becomes his next chapter… well—that story writes itself in golden letters across global headlines.

So yes—he’s waiting not because he lacks offers… but because he wants to choose wisely.