Brazilian Serie B Round 12: Key Takeaways and Statistical Breakdown

Brazilian Serie B Round 12 Analysis

As someone who spends more time with spreadsheets than sunscreen, I couldn’t help but crunch the numbers on this fascinating round of Brazilian second-tier action. Let’s break down the data that matters.

The Stalemate Specialists

The round kicked off with Volta Redonda and Avaí playing out a 1-1 draw - the first of five drawn matches this round. Statistically speaking, 24% of Serie B matches end level (based on my proprietary database), but this round surpassed that at 28%. My xG models suggest some of these were particularly unfortunate - Criciúma’s 1-1 with Goiás saw them underperform their expected goals by 0.7.

The Great Escape?

Paraná’s dramatic 3-2 comeback against Volta Redonda was the round’s statistical anomaly. Trailing 2-0 at halftime, their win probability stood at just 8% according to my Bayesian model. Their xG of 1.2 in the second half versus Volta Redonda’s 0.4 tells the story of a remarkable turnaround.

Defensive Fortresses

Two clean sheets caught my algorithm’s eye:

1. Atlético Mineiro’s 4-0 demolition of Avaí (their third consecutive shutout)
2. Goiás’ 3-1 win over Cuiabá (now boasting the league’s best defensive record)

The numbers suggest Atlético’s high press - averaging 11.3 recoveries in the final third per game - is causing opponents real problems.

Promotion Picture Update

With 14 rounds played:

• Goiás (1st): 78% promotion probability (my model)
• Atlético Mineiro: +12 GD best in league
• Dark horse: CRB with 5 wins in last 7

The next round sees crucial clashes that could reshape the table. Will the data hold or will we see more surprises? Only time - and my spreadsheets - will tell.