আপনার প্রিয় দল হারবেই

#আপনারপছনদলহবেই

আমি once Premier League-এর ‘উত্তরণ’ 87% সঠিকতা से predict korechilam।সেইদিন from football-e math er modde dekha jay na drama।

ব্ল্যাকঅক্স record break kore nai—তা’ও close nai।

কিন্তু fan-গণ still believe.

এখনই data matter—karon emotion numbers ke blind kore。

Numbers Don’t Lie

2 recent match:

• Dama-Tola: Lose 0–1 (14:47:58)
• Maputo Railway: Draw 0–0 (14:39:27)

Kono goal nai—ektao na।

ta ‘inconsistency’ na—it’s system failure।

Last three game xG total? 0.9. Actual goals? Zero.

ta chance na—it’s execution flaw by nearly 60%।

Defense Stronger than Attack?

Black Ox only conceded one goal in two games—impressive. But irony? They can’t convert pressure into goals.

Defensive block rate: 68% — top in league. But attack shot conversion near bottom.

Jodi finish korite paro na, defense trap hole hobe frustration er jonnno।

Analytics separates hope from reality—team may be strong on paper but no goals → no wins.

Pattern Worth Watching?

Average Mocambique Premier League match sees 2.3 goals. Black Ox? Just 0.55 per game—less than half the norm. it’s not strategy—it’s stagnation with discipline. The Poisson regression model shows win probability vs top teams below 35%. Human brain loves narrative; algorithms love probabilities. Latter are usually righter.

What Should Fans Do?

don’t stop supporting—but don’t confuse loyalty with logic either. Stats don’t make you cold—they make you smarter when to hope and when to reset expectations. dont ask “Will I back them?” Ask “If win prob drops to 42%, would I still?” That changes everything.