ব্রাজিলিয়ান সিরিয়ে বি ১২

গণনা-গুণটা-দিতে-পারবেন-না

আমি 7বছরধরে ফুটবলের ডাটা विश्लेषण करছি—শুধুমাত्र আনন্দেরজন্যই, но नয়, कारণ मैं शिखছি कि एকইসপ্তাহে 30+খেলা हওয়াতে outliers randomহয়।

12তম সপ্তাহটি कথা हওয়ा।গড় goals/গেম? 1.8 – 지난 시즌의 2.1보다 낮지만, 변동성은 매우 높았다.5টি draw (2টি 0–0),4টি shutouts,3টি game where ≥4 goals were scored.

এটা chaos? No—it’s complexity waiting to be modeled.

**অদ্ভুতদল:কখনওচইউদয়?

Avaí vs Criciúma: Avaí had won three home games in a row but lost by score of 1–2. My model flagged them as overvalued—overconfidence leads to tactical rigidity.

Meanwhile, Goiás’ 4–0 demolition of Avaí wasn’t a fluke; it was predicted. Their xG had been rising since mid-June—and on that day hit peak at 3.6 vs Avaí’s 0.9.

Not luck—that’s data-driven inevitability.

**যখনদলগুলি script-breaking: Glitch Factor

Waltretonda vs Avai ended 1–1, despite early deficit. At first glance: another tight draw.

But deeper stats: Waltretonda had more possession (58%), yet only one real chance (shot on target). Avaí had fewer touches but higher efficiency—three shots inside box, one converted.

Here human bias fails—but math wins.

Second half saw two yellow cards and red for Waltretonda’s defender—a moment my simulation couldn’t fully predict due to lack of historical foul pattern data for that player group. But even then? It reinforced my point: unpredictability exists—but only within measurable bounds.

Predictions That Held Up (And One That Didn’t) My forecast for Goiania vs Waldretonda: Goiania win by one, projected scoreline 2–0—and yes, it came true:

Final: Goiania 2 - Waldretonda 0 | Duration: ~95 minutes | Goal times: Min 37 & Min 78 — both from set pieces. P = .94 → perfect alignment with model output. The error? Predicting Amazonas FC vs Vila Nova at +1 goal handicap → expected close game → result was 2–1, meaning underdog conceded early but clawed back via counterattack at minute 89. Still counts as learning—not failure.

আগামীদিন? Rising Contenders on Radar: With six weeks left until promotion spots solidify:

• Criciúma now top-half after eight wins in ten games; strong xGA below league average — defense tightening fast.
• Goiás winning consistently without star players — sustainable success via system-based play? -Preliminary model suggests high long-term stability if they maintain form. The upcoming clash between Criciúma and Goiás could be pivotal—not just for points but psychological momentum among mid-table rivals. -In short: keep eyes on matchups between teams ranked #5 to #8—they’re where promotions get decided through small margins.